Terms of Reference

 

Programme design

 

Addressing climate change by promoting low carbon climate resilient development in the UK Overseas Territories

 

 

 

1.      Introduction

 

Climate change in the OTs

 

1. The UK has responsibility for 14 Overseas Territories, which (with the exception of the British Antarctic Territory, Gibraltar and the Sovereign Base Areas on Cyprus) are all small islands and among those that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has identified as "most vulnerable" and "virtually certain to experience the most severe ecological impacts of climate change"[i]. The impacts of climate change in the OTs are a potentially huge contingent liability, which will fall to the UK taxpayer (it is important to consider the costs and impacts resulting from direct and indirect impacts including wider security, migration, pressures on resources), Consequently it is in the UK’s interest to ensure that the OTs have access to funding and/or expertise in order to take action to prevent, mitigate and/or adapt to such impacts and to promote low carbon growth.  

 

2. The Government Office for Science Foresight report "International Dimensions of Climate Change"[ii] released in July 2011 looks at the impact international climate change is likely to have on the UK. The chapter on UK Overseas Territories[iii] concludes that "UK government departments do not act proactively to address adaptation in UK Overseas Territories, leaving them vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, with repercussions on the UK." This means that the cost of inaction is potentially huge.  Inaction now might lead to a situation in the future in which presently non aided territories could turn to the UK for assistance.

 

3. The UK OTs, like many small island developing states are economically, socially and physically vulnerable by their nature. Montserrat for example is vulnerable to climate change because of: high exposure to natural hazards such as tropical cyclones, storm surge, drought, floods, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions; its limited physical size with limited places for development and restricted adaptation options to climate change and sea-level rise; economic remoteness (measured by high freight and insurance costs); limited natural resources and over-exploitation leading to degradation of natural systems (degradation of coastal ecosystems, which could otherwise act as natural sea defences and degradation of terrestrial ecosystems which lead to flooding and erosion) and a lack of economic diversity. Those territories, islands which are predominantly of limestone and coral formation such as British Virgin Island, Turks and Caicos, Cayman have thin water lenses and decreasing fresh water availability and are therefore highly sensitive to sea-level rise and changes in rainfall distribution. OTs have a narrow economic base and for the most part are dependent on two or three sectors, such as the financial services industry and tourism in the Caribbean, and fisheries in the South Atlantic. Subsequently they are highly sensitive to external market shocks with little economic resilience and capacity to adapt.

 

4. The key impacts attributed to climate change in the territories are: A change in average climate; sea-level rise; changing distribution of carriers of disease; increased incidence of hot days; changes in rainfall patterns; more acidic oceans (less CO2 dissolved in warmer ocean water); a change in the incidence and intensity of extreme weather events; storm surge; flash floods and tropical cyclones.

 

5. Low carbon growth in UK OTs makes good business sense. For example, Montserrat's economy is 100% fossil fuel based. The Government of Montserrat currently spends £ 1.7 million annually on fuel imports. This is 30% of Montserrat's budget before supplementary support from the UK Government in the form of budget aid. Investment in renewable energy technology could make economic sense as once the initial investment is paid off; the continued purchase of fuel does not have to be factored into the electricity price. 

 

How HMG has addressed climate change in its OTs so far

 

6. Although HMG has no dedicated climate change related programme or funding stream in support of the OTs, some biodiversity related work funded by DEFRA Darwin Initiative, activities such as ecosystem based adaptation (even if not explicitly described as such) will have had or are having a climate relevant angle to them. The same applies to projects that have received FCO and DFID funding under OTEP, the Overseas Territories Environment Programme. As part of the needs assessment this consultancy will improve the information on what climate related initiatives other government department have been funding in OTs.

 

7. In 2010 DFID OTD commissioned a strategic programme review, which assessed the extent to which current OTD investments were at risk from climate change. The review concluded that OTD's programme had relatively high overall climate risk and suggested that OTD should build a focus on climate risks and opportunities into both, capital expenditure and  into climate sensitive sectors in national development plans. The review also highlighted that there was an important role DEFRA, DECC and FCO needed to play to support UKOTs. It was suggested that a “climate champion” (until to date: Christine Roehrer) in OTD should prioritize and drive this agenda in 2011.

 

8. Over the past years DFID OTD has provided some support for Climate Change activities in the Overseas Territories with aided territories and non aided territories benefitting from DFID's contribution to regional programmes such as the Overseas Territories Environment Programme (OTEP) as described above and very specifically with the "Enhancing Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Caribbean OTs" (Please find publication of all reports on http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/projects/enhancing-capacity-for-adaptation-to-climate-change-ecacc-in-the-uk-caribbean-overseas-territories-project.html) Please also find an overview of all OTD climate related activities so far in Annex A - OTD Climate Change Fact Sheet. In total OTD spend on climate change related activities has been less than £ 1 Million so far. This amount does not compare at all to what other parts of DFID and HMG spend on climate change related measures in comparably vulnerable regions.  

 

OTs and the International Climate Finance Architecture

 

9. Although the UK is a major contributor to a number of international climate funds in- and outside UNFCCC such as the MDB administered Climate Investment Funds (CIFs), the Adaptation Fund, the Least Developed Countries' Fund, the Global Environmental Facility GEF, the World Bank’s Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF), the OTs, because of the nature of their relationship with the UK, are not eligible to benefit from these resources.

 

OTs and the UK International Climate Fund

 

10. Although HMG has recently created the £ 2.9 billion UK International Climate Fund (ICF) UK OTs do not appear to be in a position to benefit from the fund. Whilst in theory they are eligible, none of them fall into any of the priority categories that govern spending decisions of the fund.  

 

Way forward

 

11. Given all the above DFID, FCO, DEFRA and JNCC have decided to develop an Overseas Territories specific Climate Change Programme, which this consultancy shall design.

 

2.      Objective and Scope of Work

 

Objective

 

12. The purpose of the consultancy is to identify the scope and best way to deliver an appropriate climate change programme for all UK OTs and develop a business case it.

 

Scope

 

13. The business case shall cover all 14 UK OTs and present a differentiated (possibly matrix) approach to support their progress towards low carbon climate resilient development. Whilst there may be issues that need addressing in all 14 OTs, different amounts of financial (if at all) and technical support will be available to different territories, depending on criteria such as their eligibility for Overseas Development Assistance and HMG preparedness to invest.

 

14. The UK OTs with their total population of around 239,000 vary greatly in terms of their size, population, economic activities and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The range from the fragile, environmentally dependent subsistence economy of the Pitcairn Islands, based on fishing, horticulture, and the sale of handicrafts, to the more robust economies of Bermuda and Cayman Islands, based on tourism and offshore financial services. Their climates range from arctic to temperate to tropical.

 

15. Nevertheless, there is logic to providing a generic framework in form of one business case with targeted selective areas of action for individual or groups of UK OTs: with the exception of the British Antarctic Territories and Gibraltar, all the UKOTs are islands. And this means they share characteristics that make all small islands - whether UKOTs or not - particularly vulnerable to climate change (as to other economic, social and environmental shocks).

 

16. There are enormous differences in terms of number of population, capacity, of the individual territory's governments, their financial situation etc. between the territories. The business case shall develop a logical, justified and differentiated approach to what type and amount of assistance should be made available to which territory and why - taking into account that some territories have a higher per capita income than the UK and would therefore possibly not deserve financial, but certainly other types of assistance.

 

17. The business case shall clearly spell out whether a joint HMG programme has advantages and what those are. It shall clearly say what the joint programme aims to achieve and why jointly the objectives would be achieved more effectively (if that was the case) than individual government departments supporting the territories on their climate related portfolio of work.

 

18. The business case shall not only consider the differences between territories, but also differences within territories. It shall suggest an approach for targeted interventions that address issues of concern to the most vulnerable members of the population within territories. The definition of vulnerable members of society which will include women; children and disabled will be different between territories. In some territories special attention will need to be paid to immigrants, "non belongers", those who do not have "belongership" (citizenship) and (nearly) no voice in public or civil society fora. Yet they may represent up to 40% or more of the population in some places. In addition, they may not understand and speak English (well enough / at all) and therefore not be able to understand advice or disaster warning announcements.

 

Adaptation - climate resilient development

 

19. Given the nature of the territories and the specific challenges they face, the assumption is that the programme will have a bigger emphasis on the adaptation - climate resilient development - an disaster risk reduction.

 

20. The business case will need to address how the territories can be best equipped to be

 

a) dealing with today's climate related risks and

 

b) preparing for tomorrow's climate.

 

21. Dealing with today's climate risks: Many or all of the UK Overseas Territories are not well adapted even to current climatic risks, including cyclones, floods, droughts and heat waves. Ways of reducing current climate -related risks include for instance through more efficient water management and via disaster preparedness. Many, but not all, of these adaptations to current risks will increase resilience to future climate change.

 

22. Preparing for tomorrow's climate: Ongoing changes in the earth system due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions will have profound permanent impacts on the climate. The risks have become increasingly evident as climate science has advanced, though their exact magnitude and incidence is still unclear.  

 

23. Global impacts of climate change, summarised in the most recent assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) include[iv][v][vi]

 

§  Higher temperatures and more frequent and intense heat waves, threatening human life and crops;

 

§  More intense rainfall, causing greater flooding;

 

§  Loss of winter precipitation storage in snowmass and glaciers, inducing summer droughts;

 

§  Reduced crop yields;

 

§  Sea level rise; threatening river deltas, coastal cities and small island nations with more storm surges, salinised water and eventual inundation;

 

§  More intense cyclones;

 

§  Loss of coral reefs

 

§  Ocean acidification, with possibly profound impacts on marine ecosystems including fisheries;

 

§  Loss of terrestrial biodiversity, profound at higher temperatures;

 

§  New areas exposed to malaria and other diseases.

 

 

 

3.      Consultancy assignment - Organisation and Requirements

 

Tasks/ activities

 

24.  UK OT specific needs assessment

 

§  review available documentation, in particular outputs from the Caribbean regional "Enhancing Adaptation to Climate Change Programme" ECACC that has produced climate change issues papers and draft climate change policies as well as climate vulnerability assessments in five Caribbean OTs; a recent climate change questionnaire that has been filled by the Pitcairners; any other relevant  available documentation;

 

§  interviews with selected key stakeholders in the territories

 

25.  Collect, analyse and summarize evidence of what works

 

§  Recent WB IEG evaluation reports on low carbon development (published) and adaptation (approach paper stage - possibly published during consultancy)

 

§  Evaluations by the wider donor community

 

§  relevant publications in Journals

 

§  experience and evidence by DFID country offices and policy teams

 

Develop, propose and explain the criteria that will determine what would be delivered (in terms of TA) and funded under the programme and what not.  

 

26. A comparative analysis of different approaches.

 

How to go about the design: The ways of going about the design of the programme could be driven by an offer such as e.g. by the proposed next steps of the "Enhancing Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change[1]" ECACC programme - or - by defining desired outcomes and then establishing what work in territories could be required to achieve them. This is the approach Christine Roehrer had taken to craft the OTD outline of proposed activities, initially thought to be submitted for funding by the ICF; the consultants should take all possible options, in particular existing best practice examples in consideration to inform their thinking about the most suitable approach of delivery towards the territories.

 

What mechanism to use: At least the following three different approaches should be analysed and compared against each other, highlighting strengths, weaknesses, effectiveness, efficiency, policy and other implications for each of them. Finally and based on thorough analysis the consultancy team should provide a clear recommendation on the preferred approach.  

 

Approach 1: A truly joint HMG programme. This would mean that government departments agree on the programme itself and put their budgetary contribution towards it into a joint pot.

 

Approach 2: A programme that mirrors the model of the International Climate Fund (ICF) for the OTs. Programme priorities and eligibility criteria are firmly agreed between all parties, decision making happens in a cross-Whitehall high level board and implementation is taken forward by the different departments. In the case of the £2.9 billion defined as ICF spent, DFID is in charge of implementing £1.8, DECC of implementing £ 1 billion and DEFRA £ 100 000.

 

Approach 3: A programme that would be better defined as "HMG umbrella strategy" and follow the HMG collaborative approach of implementing the OT Biodiversity strategy. HMG departments would agree on a joint strategy for implementing climate change related activities in the territories. Delivery of the strategy would be up to each and every department, which could use their individual delivery mechanism. The committement to the overarching strategy would help government departments to justify their spending in implementing it and give them the flexibility to bring their spending closer in line with their own objectives.

 

27. Analyse and describe options for implementation: Explore, analyse and determine possible effectiveness and value for money of each realistic implementation option.

 

Implementation options should take into account that some of the territories are eligible for overseas development assistance (ODA) and others are not;

 

A phased approach to the implementation options should be suggested. What are core activities within each approach that should be taken forward if for example £ 2, 5 or over 10 Million were made available for the programme.

 

The suggested implementation options must take into account that all OTs face capacity constraints and should spell out how the programme will avoid creating a management burden on the territories.

 

The suggested implementation options must also considered the limited capacity within HMG to administer, implement, oversee (monitor and evaluate) the programme. Therefore the consultants should bear in mind that having it all contracted out could well be the preferred way of delivery by HMG. In that context the consultants should review and consider different and innovative models DFID has recently used for contracting out important and rather large  of work, in particular, the models governing the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) and the way the work by the International Growth Centre (ICG) has been contracted out. Another model that should be considered is DEFRA's Darwin Initiative. Consultants are welcome to consider other relevant models within their analysis.

 

Outputs

 

28. Inception report that contains

 

§  summarizes the findings of the needs assessment

 

§  suggestion regarding what weight (amount of investment) should go to low carbon (including which interventions could offer best economic and carbon returns - is there scope for a large-scale energy efficiency scale-up in the territories?) and what to adaptation, including outlining proposed balance between types of adaptation actions (resilience building, climate proofing, transformational change); suggested balance of support: which islands will need to be supported more than others - in which form/s? (considering vulnerability, ODA eligibility etc.)

 

§  initial thoughts on what would be likely to work out as preferred approach and implementation mechanism

 

§  proposes the outline intervention logic for the business case: the consultancy should present three viable options

 

§  identifies knowledge gaps and suggest cost-effective way for gathering the information during development of the full business case

 

§  methods, approaches, criteria and consultation that will be used to work up the business case

 

§  anticipated outline outputs

 

§  cost estimate

29. Final output containing

 

§  Final report with chapter on a) evidence base, b) summary of needs assessment, c) overview on methods and approaches, d) description and thorough comparative analysis of different approaches, e) options for implementation, f) criteria that determine what would be delivered (in terms of TA) and funded under the programme and what not.

 

§  Full business case in DFID format with a strong evidence base

 

§  Monitoring and evaluation framework, including baseline survey requirements (as part of / cost of which included in the business case)

 

§  Comprehensive repertoire of relevant background information (electronically / on CD)

 

The Consultancy Team

 

30. The consultancy team will consist of a minimum of two persons, and will report to DFID through the team leader.  The team leader should meet these requirements:

 

-       Substantial experience in designing multidimensional and complex and development programmes including multi-party delivery.

 

-       Knowledge of and experience in design and delivery of climate change related interventions, adaptation and mitigation.

 

-       Experience in designing reasonable and practical Monitoring and Evaluation Frameworks that can be set up together with the programme.

 

-       Excellent verbal and written communication skills with a track record of good writing in plain English and delivering on time.

 

 

 

31. The consultancy team as a whole should have competence, expertise and experience in relation to the following areas:

 

-       Deep familiarity with all relevant background literature on climate change adaptation and mitigation, including recent work on indicators in areas such as adaptive capacity, reducing vulnerability, low carbon growth etc.  

 

-       Donor policies, modalities and aid delivery systems.

 

-       Recent approaches of donors relating to planning and implementing interventions that address the challenges of climate change.

 

-       Experiences of working with one or more UK Overseas Territory and a good understanding of what is realistic and feasible within the constraints of small island territories.

 

 

 

Data Collection

 

32. The consultants will be responsible for the collection of documentation which will be relevant for this assignment.  Access to documents will be facilitated by DFID, FCO, DEFRA, DECC and JNCC.

Reporting

 

33. A Steering Committe consisting of FCO, DEFRA, DECC and other relevant UK and OT government departments will be formed to oversee the design of this business case.

 

34. The consultants will report to the Steering Committee via Christine Roehrer in DFID OTD.

 

35. Timeframe (indicative)

 

No.	Output	Milestone date
1	Draft inception report	2 March 2012
2	Inception report	15 March 2012
3	Draft final report	18 May 2012
4	Final report - incl. full business case, M&E frame­work and relevant background info (electronically)	31 May 2012

 

 

 

Contracting arrangements

 

36. The project manager (technical matters) will be Christine Roehrer in DFID Overseas Territories Department. All contracting issues will be dealt with by Fiona Hamilton in DFID OTD.  

 

37. The contract will be milestone based and payments subject to an agreed Payment Schedule linked to the agreed outputs and expected timetable for delivery. The consultancy team is expected to undertake an internal quality assurance process prior to product submission to DFID.

 

38. The start date for this work will be 20 February 2012 on contract signature and the concluding date will be 31 May 2012.

 

 

 

4       Relevant documentation

 

-     "Enhancing Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Caribbean OTs", please find publication of all reports including  Montserrat, Anguilla, BVI, TCI, Cayman Climate Change Issues Papers and Draft Climate Change Policies on http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/projects/enhancing-capacity-for-adaptation-to-climate-change-ecacc-in-the-uk-caribbean-overseas-territories-project.html)

 

-     Pitcairn climate change questionnaire

 

-     Global climate change in the Falkland Islands: predictions and solutions; Falkland Islands Government; 23rd of July 2007

 

-     MET-office briefing for DFID regarding the affects of climate change over the next 30-40 years around St Helena, Ascension Island

 

-     ECACC phase II proposal from September 2011

 

-     Concept programmes with suggested activities and outcomes included in the DFID International Climate Fund spreadsheet, submitted by Christine Roehrer March 2011: These include: 1) Implementing disaster risk reduction and national adaptation plans; 2) Promoting low carbon growth trajectories; 3) Climate proofing all UK infrastructure investments and 4) Expanding Overseas Territories Environment Programme OTEP. (File name: OTD proposed ICF spent in all of DFID ICF overview diagram)

 

-     ICF concept note Montserrat Geothermal

 

-     CARICOM Implementation Plan "Delivering transformational change 2011-21: Implementing the CARICOM Regional Framework for Achieving Development Resilient to Climate Change"

 

-     Climate Change in UK OTs - paper & powerpoint presentation by JNCC 2008

 

-     DFID business case format and guidance note

 

-     Enhancing the climate risk and adaptation fact base for the Caribbean - preliminary results of the "Economics of Climate Adaptation" (ECA) Study; CCRIF Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility, August 2010

 

-     WB IEG Evaluation Approach Paper "Climate change and the WB Group: Climate Adpatation" http://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/content/ieg/en/home/topics/climate.html

 

-     IUCN: Petit, J. and Prudent , G. (eds). Climate Change and Biodiversity in the European Union Overseas Entities. Gland, Switzerland and Brussels, Belgium. IUCN, 2010, 192pp http://data.iucn.org/dbtw-wpd/edocs/2010-064.pdf

 

-     Ryan-Collin Lily, Ellis Karen, Lemma Alberta: Climate Compatible Development in the Infrastructure Sector; An overview of the opportunities and challenges at the nexus of climate change, infrastructure and development; ODI & Engineers against Poverty; Sept 2011

 

 

 

5       Annexes

 

Annex A: DFID OTD Climate Change Fact Sheet (overview on past & ongoing work)

 

Annex B: DFID OTD Climate Change Strategic Programme Review 2010

 

Annex C: List of key contacts in HMG and the UK Overseas Territories